Is Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) A Risky Investment?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE:AAP) finished Wednesday with an addition of $2.1 to close at $69.44, an upside of 3.12 percent. An average of 3,103,240 shares of common stock have been traded in the last five days. There was a fall of -$0.43 in the past week, and it reached a new high 5 times over the past 12 months. The last 20 days have seen an average of 2,136,210 shares traded, while the 50-day average volume stands at 2,422,974.

AAP stock has decreased by -2.95% in the last month. The company shares reached their 1-month lowest point of $66.33 on 08/23/23. With the stock rallying to its 52-week high on 02/02/23, shares of the company touched a low of $63.56 and a high of $200.49 in 52 weeks. It has reached a new high 5 times so far this year and lost -52.77% or -$77.59 in price. In spite of this, the price is down -65.36% from the 52-week high.

Valuation Metrics

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.34. The stock’s beta is 1.09. Other valuation ratios to consider include the trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio at 0.37, the price-to-book (PB) ratio at 1.56.

The company has a payout ratio of 66.70%. The company’s most recent quarterly dividend payment was $0.25 a share, representing a down of -83.33% from $1.50 last year. Its latest decrease dividend $1.25 reported on Tuesday May 30 2023.

Financial Health

The quick ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc. for the three months ended March 30 was 0.20, and the current ratio was 1.20, indicating that the company is not able to meet its debt obligations. Further, the company has a long term debt to equity ratio of 0.68 and a total debt to equity ratio of 0.72 for the quarter ending March 30. Advance Auto Parts Inc.’s EBITDA margin for the year ending March 30 is 9.30%, while its operating margin for the same period stands at 5.40%. Its gross profit as reported stood at $4.96 billion compared to revenue of $11.15 billion.

For investors, determining the potential profitability of the investment also depends on the performance of the company’s management. In the past 12 months, Advance Auto Parts Inc.’s return on assets was 3.30%.

Earnings Surprise

For the three-month period that ended March 30, Advance Auto Parts Inc. had $1.78 billion in total debt. In the quarter under review, the net income was up than the previous quarter. The company posted a net income of $42.65 million in the quarter, while revenues of $47.87 million were shrunk -227.76%. The analyst consensus anticipated Advance Auto Parts Inc.’s latest quarter earnings to come in at $2.57 per share, but it turned out to be $0.72, a -72.00% surprise. For the quarter, EBITDA amounted to $182.55 million. Shareholders own equity worth $59.44 million.

Technical Picture

From a technical analysis perspective, let’s take a brief look at Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) price momentum. RSI 9-day as of the close on 23 August was 46.02%, suggesting the stock is Neutral, with historical volatility in this time frame at 25.73%.

As of today, AAP’s price is $68.85 -0.62% or -$0.43 from its 5-day moving average. AAP is currently trading -4.99% lower than its 20-day SMA and -41.46% lower than its 100-day SMA. However, the stock’s current price level is +3.81% above the SMA50 and -62.31% below the SMA200.

The stochastic %K and %D were 24.83% and 18.59%, respectively, and the average true range (ATR) was 2.33. With the 14-day stochastic at 46.21% and the average true range at 2.28, the RSI (14) stands at 44.89%. The stock has reached -1.37 on the 9-day MACD Oscillator while the 14-day reading was at -1.88.

Analyst Ratings

Atlantic Equities downgraded Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) to a an Underweight rating in its most recent analyst report. Previously, the stock was rated as a Neutral. The consensus rating for Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) among analysts is Hold. According to current brokerage recommendations, 2 brokerage firms advise that investors sell AAP, while 21 suggest investors hold. There are 0 analysts who rate the stock as underweight. The stock is rated overweight by 1 analysts, while 2 others rate it as a “buy”.

What is AAP’s price target for the next 12 months?

Analysts predict a range of price targets between $50.00 and $85.00, with a median target of $76.00. Taking a look at these predictions, the average price target given by analysts for Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) stock is $74.18.

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