Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP): What is the Risk Factor?


Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (NYSE:UGP) saw an upside of 2.36% to $2.60 after adding $0.06 on Wednesday. The 5-day average trading volume is 1,005,067 shares of the company’s common stock. It has gained $2.64 in the past week and touched a new high 3 times within the past 5 days. An average of 1,334,462 shares of the company has been traded in the last 20 days, and the 50-day average volume stands at 1,416,711.

UGP’s 1-month performance is 4.53% or $0.09 on its low of $2.18 reached on 01/03/23. The company’s shares have touched a 52-week low of $2.13 and high of $3.12, with the stock’s rally to the 52-week high happening on 01/12/23. YTD, UGP has achieved 4.96% or $0.19 and has reached a new high 6 times. However, the current price is down -16.67% from the 52-week high price.

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Valuation Metrics

UGP stock has a beta of 1.20. Moving on to other valuation ratios, the trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.12 while the price-to-book (PB) in the most recent quarter is 0.25.

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.’s quick ratio for the period ended September 29 was 1.40, with the current ratio over the same period at 1.70. As well, the company’s long term debt to equity for the quarter ending September 29 was 1.13, while the total debt to equity was 1.63. In terms of profitability, the gross margin trailing 12 months is 4.00%. The firm’s gross profit as reported stood at $908.87 million against revenue of $20.33 billion.

Earnings Surprise

For the quarterly period ending September 29 this year, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.’s cash and short-term investments amounted to $538.32 million against total debt of $13.77 billion. Net income and sales went up compared to those figures reported in the previous quarter. Net income shrunk -452.4% to $167.94 million, while revenue of $0.0 was 100.0% off the previous quarter. Analysts expected UGP to announce $0.01 per share in earnings in its latest quarter, but it posted $0.01, representing a 0.00% surprise. EBITDA for the quarter stood at more than $172.86 million. UGP stock balance sheet for the quarter ending September 29 shows that total liabilities totaled 4.33 billion, with total debt at $13.77 billion.

Let’s look briefly at Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) price momentum from a technical analysis perspective. The 9-day relative strength index as at close on 24 January was 64.01% to suggest the stock is trending Neutral, with historical volatility in this time period at 34.24%.

The stock’s 5-day moving average is $2.51, reflecting a +3.16% or $0.08 change from its current price. UGP is currently trading +3.57% above its 20-day SMA, -1.88% above its 100-day SMA. However, the stock’s current price level is away from the SMA50 by +7.41% and SMA200 by-10.31%.

Stochastic %K and %D was 71.53% and 64.19% and the average true range (ATR) pointed at 0.10. The RSI (14) points at 58.90%, while the 14-day stochastic is at 85.87% with the period’s ATR at 0.11. The stock’s 9-day MACD Oscillator is pointing at 0.01 and 0.05 on the 14-day charts.

Analyst Ratings

Analysts offering their rating for UGP stock have a consensus rating for the stock as Overweight. Currently, 0 brokerage advisors rate UGP as a “sell,”, while 6 advise that investors “Hold.” 0 analysts have rated the stock as underweight. 0 rates the stock as overweight while 4 have offered a “buy” rating.

What is UGP’s price target for the next 12 months?

Analysts have a consensus price target ranging from a low of $2.63 and a high of $4.45, with their median price target at $3.18. Looking at these predictions, the average price target given by analysts is for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) stock is $3.23.


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