Valvoline Inc. (VVV): What is the Risk Factor?

Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) saw an upside of 6.88% to $34.00 after adding $2.19 on Tuesday. The 5-day average trading volume is 762,297 shares of the company’s common stock. It has gained $34.45 in the past week. An average of 828,989 shares of the company has been traded in the last 20 days, and the 50-day average volume stands at 1,035,664.

VVV’s 1-month performance is 2.22% or $2.81 on its low of $29.81 reached on 09/20/21. The company’s shares have touched a 52-week low of $18.34 and high of $34.65, with the stock’s rally to the 52-week high happening on 06/14/21. YTD, VVV has achieved 37.47% or $10.79. However, the current price is down -1.88%% from the 52-week high price.

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Insider Transactions

On Aug 20, 53 days have gone by since the last insider trading activity for Valvoline Inc. (VVV). O’Daniel Julie Marie (CLO and Corp. Secy) most recently sold 4,969 shares at $29.81 per share on Aug 20. This transaction cost the insider $148,116. SVP, International, Muashsher Jamal K, sold 629 shares at a price of $31.70 on May 03. Then, on Feb 25, SVP, President, Quick Lubes Puckett Anthony R. sold 6,212 shares at a price of $25.01 per share. This transaction amounted to $155,362.

Valuation Metrics

The company’s PE ratio for the last five years has touched a high of 25.61 and a low of 7.617. VVV stock has a beta of 1.35. Moving on to other valuation ratios, the trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 2.04 while the price-to-book (PB) in the most recent quarter is 244.69, with the price to cash flow ratio at 39.68.

Valvoline Inc. pays an annual dividend of $0.50 per share. Its dividend yield is 1.47% and the payout ratio is 24.00%. VVV’s most recent quarterly dividend payment was made on Sep. 15, when it paid $0.1250 a share compared with prior rate of $0.1250, down 0.0% from last year’s. The company has boosted its dividend for the last 1 consecutive years with the latest dividend increase of $0.0120 reported on Thursday November 12 2020. Measured over the last 3 years, the Dividend has been growing by 109.48% yearly.

It is projected that Valvoline Inc.’s next ex-dividend date will be on 29-Nov. VVV is expected to distribute $0.125 as its next dividend.

Valvoline Inc.’s quick ratio for the period ended June 29 was 1.50, with the current ratio over the same period at 2.00 meaning that VVV stock is able to fulfill its debt obligations. As well, the company’s long term debt to equity for the quarter ending June 29 was 77.00, while the total debt to equity was 77.26. In terms of profitability, the gross margin trailing 12 months is 35.50%. The trailing 12-month EBITDA margin is 21.21% while for the period ending June 29; Valvoline Inc.’s operating margin was 17.10%. The firm’s gross profit as reported stood at $863.0 million against revenue of $2.35 billion.

Earnings Surprise

For the quarterly period ending June 29 this year, Net income and sales went up compared to those figures reported in the previous quarter. Analysts expected VVV to announce $0.45 per share in earnings in its latest quarter, but it posted $0.55, representing a 22.20% surprise. EBITDA for the quarter stood at more than $155.0 million. VVV stock balance sheet for the quarter ending June 29 shows that total liabilities totaled 3.03 billion, with total debt at $1.97 billion. Shareholders hold equity totaling $180.76 million

Technical Picture

Let’s look briefly at Valvoline Inc. (VVV) price momentum from a technical analysis perspective. The 9-day relative strength index as at close on 11 October was 74.39% to suggest the stock is trending Overbought, with historical volatility in this time period at 37.95%.

The stock’s 5-day moving average is $32.23, reflecting a +8.23% or $2.58 change from its current price. VVV is currently trading +6.03% above its 20-day SMA, +4.50% above its 100-day SMA. However, the stock’s current price level is away from the SMA50 and SMA200 by +9.81% and +44.44% respectively.

Stochastic %K and %D was 72.43% and 69.53% and the average true range (ATR) pointed at 0.88. The RSI (14) points at 69.00%, while the 14-day stochastic is at 86.13% with the period’s ATR at 0.80. The stock’s 9-day MACD Oscillator is pointing at 0.70 and 0.61 on the 14-day charts.

Analyst Ratings

In the most recent analyst report for Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV), Jefferies upgraded it to a Buy rating. They previously had a Hold rating on the stock. Analysts offering their rating for VVV stock have a consensus rating for the stock as Overweight. Currently, 0 brokerage advisors rate VVV as a “sell,”, while 2 advise that investors “Hold.” 1 analysts have rated the stock as underweight. 1 rates the stock as overweight while 6 have offered a “buy” rating.

What is VVV’s price target for the next 12 months?

Analysts have a consensus price target ranging from a low of $34.00 and a high of $45.00, with their median price target at $40.00. Looking at these predictions, the average price target given by analysts is for Valvoline Inc. (VVV) stock is $40.29.


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